To: David Draper, President ISBA
    ISBA Executive Committee

From: Hal Stern
      Chair, Valencia 7/ISBA 2002 Selected Contributed Papers Program
Committee

Re: Valencia 7/ISBA 2002 Selected Contributed Papers Program Committee

Date: June 27, 2002


Introduction 

ISBA, in cooperation with the Valencia 7 organizing committee, offered
a series of Selected Contributed Papers at the recent Valencia 7
meetings.  This was in addition to the two traditional Valencia
presentation formats: invited papers accompanied by invited discussion
and poster sessions.   This is a brief report of the process.


Committee 

A contributed paper review committee was formed by the
ISBA-appointed Chair (Hal Stern, Iowa State University, USA).  
The review committee consisted of the Chair plus
    Kathryn Chaloner, University of Minnesota (USA)
    Andrew Gelman, Columbia University (USA)
    Simon Godsill, Cambridge University (UK)
    Chris Holmes, Imperial College (UK) 
    Katja Ickstadt, Universitat Dortmund (Germany)
    Jun Liu, Harvard University (USA) 
    Kerrie Mengersen, University of Newcastle (Australia)
    Eduardo Gutierrez-Pena, UNAM (Mexico)
    Dale Poirier, University of California - Irvine (USA)
    Wolfgang Polasek, University of Basel (Switzerland)
    Dalene Stangl, Duke University (USA)
    Branislav Vidakovic, Georgia Tech University (USA)
    Jon Wakefield, University of Washington (USA)
Note that this is a large committee.  The target was a committee of
ten individuals.  Fourteen invitations to participate were sent out
with the hope that this would yield the nine people needed to fill out
the committee.  This seemed most efficient since there was some time
pressure.  Thirteen out of fourteen people agreed to participate. The
individuals were selected to provide international coverage and to
provide coverage of the topics under which contributors were asked to
submit their papers. (See list below).
  

Procedure 

A call for Contributed Paper submissions went out in early September
of 2001.  Authors were required to submit an extended abstract (3 or
fewer pages, in 10pt or larger font) to the Microsoft Conference
Management Tool by October 15, 2001.  There were some logistical
difficulties due to the Committee's lack of familiarity with the
Microsoft tool and a notable fraction of authors had some trouble
submitting.  This problem would likely be less if better instructions
were provided about what authors would encounter at the website (they
were asked for an abstract and paper --- we were hoping that
individuals would put their extended abstract in as a paper but this
did not always happen the first time).

A set of 18 topics was provided and individuals were asked to identify
up to three topics under which their paper might fit.  This helped the
committee assign papers to reviewers.  Unfortunately not all
participants identified the relevant topics.   The topics were:
 1. Inference, optimality, probability and distribution theory,
foundations, causality
 2. Linear models and regression, surveys and sampling, hierarchical
models, mixed models, measurement error
 3. Non-linear regression, generalized and additive models, 
    multivariate methods, graphical models
 4. Stochastic processes, time series, filtering, dynamical systems,
    control systems, spatial and spatio-temporal modeling
 5. Non-parametric and semi-parametric methods, smoothing
 6. Model selection, model diagnostics, model comparison and
averaging, robustness
 7. Grouping, clustering, classification, discrimination, visualization
 8. Machine learning, probabilistic expert systems, neural nets
 9. Decision analysis, construction/assessment of priors and
utilities, psychological and behavioral decision theory
10. Computational methods, algorithms, convergence, sampling,  software
11. Medical statistics, epidemiology, disease mapping, biostatistics
12. Genetics, bioinformatics
13. Physical sciences, engineering, environment
14. Industrial applications, applied probability, queues, reliability, 
    quality control, experimental design, response surfaces
15. Economics, social science, finance, commerce, public policy, 
    law and forensics, history/archaeology
16. Other applications and case studies
17. Teaching Bayesian statistics
18. None of the above


Results

In all 123 submissions were received, primarily from North America
(46) and Europe (27 UK, 29 non-UK).  Submissions were also received
from each South America, Central America, Asia, Australia & New
Zealand, and Africa.

Each article was allocated to three reviewers so that reviewers had
loads of 25-30 extended abstracts to read.  Reviewers were asked to
provide an overall score (on a 5 point scale) by mid-December 2001
along with any comments (comments were optional).  Most articles did
receive three reviews by the deadline (approximately 1/4 of the papers
received only 2 reviews due mainly to conflicts of interest and some
late/reluctant reviewers).  The top 50 papers were identified and
invited to participate in mid-to-late January.  All agreed to present.
The papers to be presented were organized into sessions at the request
of the Valencia organizing committee (this was done by the chair).
   
Comments/Summary 

Remarks at the Valencia 7 meeting suggest that the Selected
Contributed Papers were of high quality and added a great deal to the
meeting. The review committee's sense is that at least 2/3 of the
submissions (approximately 80) were of high enough quality to merit
presentation (if there were no restrictions on time).

The two main issues to consider if Selected Contributed Papers are to
be included for future ISBA and/or Valencia meetings are:
 -- What should be reviewed? (one page abstracts, 3-page abstracts,
full papers) 
 -- How much reviewing? (one, two, three reviewer per submission)
These two decisions would determine the needed size of the committee.
One might expect an increased number of submissions in the future
suggesting that fewer reviews would be obtained for each.